Bitcoin Yearly Bottom in 2025

1. Confluences for a bottom around 27 January – 31 December:

1) Although my initial orange and white fractals that I published originally on 22 December, got invalidated today 13 January 2025, it is still possible that Bitcoin price action returns to these 2 fractals because of Trump’s Inauguration. I find it difficult to imagine that Bitcoin will keep going down from today 13 January all the way till the end of the month and that will not be impacted by the Inauguration. It is possible, but less likely.

The orange and long white fractals show the historical performance of these 2 separate cycles that are both operating at present. They certainly got interrupted by the seasonal behaviour of Bitcoin in January, which has made Bitcoin dump from 7 January on several previous occasions, but still the orange and long white fractals belong to the Solar Eclipse which makes deeply entrenched patterns, so it is difficult to disqualify them entirely and forget about them. Therefore it is worth keeping in mind that they are forecasting 29 January and 1 February as the Yearly bottom and 20 – 22 January as the top for January 2025.

2) January 2021 is in the same 4 year cycle as 2025 so it is worth referencing it. It made a local top on 7 January in 2021 as in 2025. It dumped all the way to 22 January and then made a HL on 27 January. As the Inauguration is unlikely to allow a straight down from 13 January, it is easier to imagine that 27 January 2025 may end up a double bottom to 13 January as the first bottom.

3) 2 colleagues: A Chinese trader said that Chinese New Year on 29 January is always bottom and an Indian trader said that independently. I backtested it and I found that the bottoms are a few days before the Chinese New Year but still nice to compare notes.

4) The Moon declination reaches bottom on 27 January – that is a super important confluence for 27 January bottom in 2025.

2. Confluences for a bottom around 20 January 2025 and a double bottom around 8 February 2025:

1a) On 12 January 2025, Rahu enters 29 degrees of Pisces, Ketu enters 29 degrees of Virgo. They move backwards through the zodiac signs, i.e. they enter at 29 degrees and exit at 0 degrees. That is the True Node of the Moon.

I work with the Mean Node of the Moon because it summarises the mean positions through history and it is more suitable for calculations that involve historical events.

The Mean Node enters Pisces on 31 January 2025.

Crypto has not experienced this transit before. Let’s see what the backtesting of other markets shows:

The last time Rahu entered 29 degrees of Pisces was 19 June 2006. It lasts 1.5 years by the time it exits the zodiac sign. Most markets closed 2006 with gains. That gives an assurance that 2025 is a bull year as expected.

The chart of Dow Jones summarising the US stocks performance in 2006 shows that the bottom happened before 19 July 2006, around 8 June 2006 = 11 days before the Mean Node entered Pisces and it was followed only by one more bottom in the first half of July 2006 = around 8 February 2025.

It is important to avoid comparing the DJIA chart of 2006 with 2005 month for month . Our 31 January 2025 = 19 June 2006. 19 – 8 = 11 days. 31 – 11 = 20 January 2025 as a possible bottom and 8 February as a double bottom.

Rahu and Ketu are strong indicators and have books written on their significance. Above all they move slowly, therefore they are useful reference for forecasting a yearly timeframe and individual monthly timeframes. As for nailing the exact date of the bottom, they may or may not be accurate, but it is worth keeping 20 January and 8 February in mind as possible bottom and double bottom dates. If that is the case then 19 – 23 February would be a local top for February 2025 and not a bottom as I stated in my previous update. I will be doing more checks on these dates nearer the time.

Rahu entering Pisces is the most imminent big cycle in 2025 as it happens only once every 19 years. Especially in its 1st month of presence it is expected to be most influential on the chart.

1b) In 2018, Bitcoin made a local bottom on 6 February. Why use this fractal, when it does not belong to a year that is in the same cycle as 2025? Because since 17 December it has made lot of similarities to our 17 December top in 2024 and then 6 January 2018 was a local top and bear reversal bottoming on 6 February 2018. If this fractal predicts 2 important pivots 17 December and 6 January, then it is possible that it manages to predict the 3rd pivot – 6 February. It is less likely to get the same straight down moves in 2025 as we are not in the same bear cycle of 2018 and we have Trump Inauguration coming, but it did predict 2 pivots so far and for that reason we can’t ignore it. What is more likely is that 6-8 February makes a double bottom as the Rahu in Pisces cycle suggests.

2) January 2021 also serves as confluence for 20 January bottom as the 22 January bottom in 2021 is only 2 days later.

3) The 20 January bottom date is confluenced well by the historical Bitcoin bottoms in January:

23 January 2024 (yearly)
1 January 2023 (yearly)
22 January 2022 (local)
22 January 2021 (yearly)
2 January 2020 (local)
12 January 2017 (yearly)
16 January 2016 (yearly)
14 January 2015 (yearly)
2 January 2013 (yearly)
1 January 2011 (yearly)
15 January 2010 (yearly)

And you can see in the list above 22-23 January made a bottom on 3 x years in the past 4 years, clearly showing a new trend different to the previous trend before 2021, when the January bottoms were earlier between 12 – 16 January and also this new trend is different in making the January bottoms of the past 5 years only local bottoms, whereas before 2020, the January bottoms were yearly bottoms.

This new trend began by the Covid in 2020 when it brought the first LL after January, the LL on 20 March. But that didn’t end then. It continued trending in 2021. 2022 doesn’t count as that is a bear year so it is natural that the price will be dropping lower after January. 2023 and 2024 managed to break that trend. The Januaries in 2023 and 2024 did produce the lowest prices of the years 2023 and 2024.

So in 2025 it is reasonable to expect that deep pivot lows will come after January as 2023 and 2024 are not of the same cycle as 2025. 2021 is of the same cycle as 2025 and therefore it is reasonable to expect that the same trend will come back in 2025 bringing after January, either LLs or HLs that are just a bit higher than the Yearly bottom, A good model for that is 2021 when the January Yearly bottom was challenged in June and in 22 July 2021. The July 2021 bottom was just a tiny bit higher than the January bottom, so officially January was the Yearly bottom, but that was by the skin of it’s teeth. I find this fractal useful as a confluence to my monthly TFs forecasts as I am bearish for May and July 2025. So I can easily imagine a double bottom in July 2025 on both Bitcoin and Ethereum as July is vulnerable for Ethereum. These are early sketches of the 2nd half of the year. For now, we are using this fractal only to visualise the January bottom and the rest of Q1.

You can see in the list of January bottoms above, that an earlier bottom before 20 January is also possible in 2025, as it used to be the case in most years before 2020.

3. Confluences for Yearly bottom to be around 13-15 January 2025:

1) The above list of dates shows that on 4/11 previous occasions the Yearly bottom took place between 12 – 16 January. The list also shows that a) January has been the host of Yearly bottoms 82% of the time – 9/11, and the host of local bottoms 18% of the time – 2/11.

By Yearly bottom I do not mean a pivot low necessarily, I mean a price which was never reached again in the same year. For example 1 January 2023 wasn’t a pivot low but it was the lowest price in 2023.

2) January 2015 is very important to us because that was the Chinese month of the Fire Ox, which happens only once in 5 years: 2015, 2020 and 2025. This is what happened in January 2015: local top on 7 January like in 2025, then a Yearly bottom on 14 January. This fractal from 2015 may or may not be useful as a reference because 2015 was a different animal element from 2025, and Year + Month is a much more useful comparison than just between months. So we are using as a confluence, until invalidated. We don’t know how long this fractal will last. From 7 January till today = a week and it has been accurate. That is why it deserves to be considered.

3) January 2017 is important to us because it belongs to the 4 year cycle 2013 – 2017 – 2021 – 2025. In January 2017, Bitcoin made a local bear reversal on 5 January and reached a Yearly bottom on 12 January.

4) I said in my previous email that in this update I will use the Sun cycle in my forecast. I already did above, when I listed the historical bottom dates in Januaries. Those are Sun cycle dates because they are related to the Winter Solstice which is part of the Sun cycle. The month around the Winter Solstice on 21 December – 31 January has been producing dumping and this seasonal behaviour is the reason for the current dumping. The local bear reversal on 7 January 2025 has happened in several other years as well.

Here I have extracted several fractals from the Winter Solstice starting on 21 December, to see what trends and what pivots followed. This completes my Winter Solstice cycle research. It shows bottoms on 23 January in 2023, 24 January in 2024, 22 January in 2021, 12 January – in 2017 and 11 January is given as bottom by the Annular Solar Eclipse cycle which is operating right now, which makes confluence number 4 for an earlier bottom around now and before 20 January.

5) Those of you who have the Daily Timeframes forecast know that 12 January is an important Gann date: it is 16 cycles of 49 days since the Lowest Low on 21 November 2022. That is quite a serious date. It does not have to manifest exactly to the date as it is such a long cycle. It simply say to us: “this is the bottom” or “it is time for a bottom”, “a bottom is imminent any time soon.” The nearest date to 12 January is 13 January 2025.

After reviewing all the historical confluences for the Yearly bottom in 2025, we can conclude that the confluences for a mid-month bottom 13 – 14 January are one more than the rest, however the other dates are also well supported by historical confluences and we can reasonably expect a double bottom between 27 January – first week of February.

4. Practical decisions based on the Yearly Timeframe

For those who are aiming to enter at the bottom a long position on futures, be prepared to be challenged, because the more correct we are in our expectations of a bull 2025, the more difficult the MMs will make it to open that safe long position that never reverts to the starting price. The TA tells us that that Bitcoin can drop to much lower than today 13 January, so I would personally wait for a future’s long, but I would not wait for a spot long because I can just buy more when it dips again.

For those who are looking for low prices on spot, only you can decide whether to buy on the 13 January lows or wait for another dip. If Bitcoin decides to make a top on the Inauguration day, I will decide then whether to sell or not.

For traders like me, who are already in long positions, the January bottom doesn’t make any difference. I have evidence that we are in a bull year and I will get a few x returns.

In my decision-making process, what I consider is that 2025 is a bull year because the main cycle that is operating is Rahu in Pisces and the previous 2 occasions when Rahu entered Pisces, in 2006 and 1987, the bottom was before the Mean Node entering Pisces. That is for US stocks. We don’t know how it is going to play for Bitcoin.

In 1987, Rahu entered Pisces on 3 December 1987. That happened 45 days after Black Monday on 19 October 1987. Again showing that the bear panic was before the entry in Pisces and not after.

We haven’t had any panic yet. We still have 2 weeks left before 31 January when the Mean Node enters Pisces. Going by history, the Yearly bottom is before the Mean Node enters Pisces, but as always we can’t be certain because Bitcoin has never experienced Rahu in Pisces.