Bitcoin Halving Pattern and What to Expect in 2024

The first halving event on 28 November 2013 coincided with the Lunar Eclipse which was 32 days before the bull reversal on 28 October 2012. 28 November was uneventful like most of the eclipse days on the Bitcoin market. Just a tiny green candle. The whole month after that did not show an escalation of price. Only from 3 January 2013, when Bitcoin celebrated her 4th anniversary, the bull rally began.

The second halving event on 9 July 2016 falls exactly on the same year in Bitcoin’s 4-year cycle, on the year before the peak. 2012 was the year before the peak and 2016 was the year before the peak. However the market here behaved differently. It went down after the halving on a monthly TF. It went up on a weekly TF and then down. The day itself was a big red candle. The bull reversal took place in less than an entire month, on 3 August 2016 which was a point of no return. Bitcoin has never dropped to that price again. $521 was the bottom.

The third halving event on 11 May 2020 produced a red candle on the day however that became also the local bottom of $8200. Bitcoin rally had already been in place since the Covid crash on 13 March 2020, and there was not a big difference in price after 11 May for whole 2.5 months. Bitcoin went up only with 1k and stayed on that level until 21 July 2020 when the bull rally propelled Bitcoin higher with very big green candles and again the price on the halving day $8200 has not been touched again.  The bottoms in 2022 and 2023 reached only double that amount, $15-16K.

The 4th halving event is in the spring of 2024, again in the cycle of the year before the peak, like the previous 3 halving events. Different sources give different dates for the halving. 22 April and 9 May. So, if it follows one of the above historical behaviours, it will either go down for a month and then go up as in 2016 or remain on the same level for two months and then go up as in 2020 or it will remain on the same level for around a month like in 2012 and then go up.

What is the common pattern between all events so far? That Bitcoin goes up eventually and never comes back to the price before the halving.

So that looks quite promising for all of us long term investors.

Now if we want to open more long positions what do we do?

This is our forecast for 2024:

Be aware that 22-23 March 2024 is expected to produce big red candles, whether as a bear reversal day or a crash or a day already in a bear trend. The whole period between 22 March – 30 April 2024 is subject to low prices because we have two bearish confluences:  Mars in Pisces from 22 March – 30 April and Mercury Rx  from 1 April – 24 April 2024.  Mars in Pisces always dumps. The market is always suppressed during Mercury Rx and even if the price is higher in April than in March, it will be very tense to be in that long position opened in the last week of March.. Mercury reverses direct on 24 April but it picks up speed only a week later, which will coincide with Mars leaving Pisces on 30 April and entering Aries on 1 May 2024.

1 May 2024 should be a clearly visible bull reversal.  For March I forecast a red closing monthly candle and for April a red closing monthly candle as well because April has two bearish confluences against only one bearish event in March.

In the first bearish period from 22 March – 30 April 2024, pay attention to 22 March itself when Mars enters Pisces, 1 April 2024 when Mercury turns Rx and 13 and 14 April 2024 are looking vulnerable. They are anniversaries from the first top of 2021 and Bitcoin market has celebrated anniversaries the opposite way to the expectation at times and at other times according to the expectation. Personally I’m bearish for those two days. I do not recommend opening long positions before 22-23 March 2024, that is for sure.

If Bitcoin drops very low in March – April,  it is up to you at what price you want to open your long. I expect $24,476 to be touched this year (2024) and if that support is broken – $15,127 and if that support is broken – $9349.  If the March-April crash does not touch $24,476 I will wait but I do not necessarily recommend you to wait as well. That is just my trust in the Phi on Power number series where $24,476  is phi 1.618 on power 21, $15,125 is phi on power 20.  Phi on power is more magnetic than the fibonacci sequence which is more detailed and coincides with local tops and bottoms.  I am only interested to know the deepest bottoms and the highest tops and the phi on power sequence of numbers is more stretched, it has much bigger gaps between the numbers so It fulfils my quest perfectly.  Historical back-testing highlights these examples: $64079 = phi on power 23, marked the two tops in 2021, phi on power 20 = $15127 marked the two most recent bottoms in 2023 and 2022.  As a long-term buyer and seller I’m very happy with phi on power number series.

Moving on to May 2024, 16, 17, 18 May look like red candles. However on Chinese astrology and Western Numerology May looks green and there aren’t any objections from Western astrology, so I have May standing out as a clear green month. The date of the Bitcoin halving is given as 9 May in some publications online.  However the three previous halving dates showed three different behaviours of the Bitcoin market so there isn’t any way of knowing which behaviour will be on display this time around.

Then from 9 June – 19 July 2024 Mars is in Taurus where he hates to be and tends to be bearish there however Mars was in Taurus when Bitcoin produced the first top in April 2021, so if Mars in Taurus is the only bearish event in June, I am inclined to expect a green candle closure of June. However the closing candle may be lower then the closing candle of May because May has a big bullish event Mars in Aries and in Western numerology May is number 4, a very strong green month on back-testing.  It has closed on green 65% of the time through the years.  So those two bullish features of May stand out higher than June.  It is very likely that June, the month of the horse in Chinese astrology will produce a big pump which reaches higher prices than the prices in May, but it will also produce a local bear reversal.  June is rarely monotonous.  The horse is a very spirited animal.  If the pump is very high, June can close on a green candle even with the bear reversal in place.  On balance I am forecasting a red candle closure for June as it is month number 5 which has closed on green candles only 56% of the time through the years.

For most of July, Mars is in Taurus and we have another bear confluence from Chinese astrology: it is the month of the sheep with an element metal which cuts the element of wood of this year.  Wood and metal are enemies.  We have a bullish confluence from numerology, it is month number 6 with back-tested results showing that it has closed on a green candle 64% of the time.  Mars in Taurus will be conjuncting power-bodies such as Uranus and the fixed star Algol on 26 degrees of Taurus.  On the world stage this is likely to escalate the war.  It will produce a heavy military offence possibly even kick off the WW3.  In the past ,war has always been bullish for the economy, that’s why they create it, and  Bitcoin has not been a hedge against the economy for a long time, so I expect it to behave in the same way as all the rest of the markets  But I do not know how the economy will behave in the same month when the war kicks off.  Bull and bear confluences hold equal weights here and it is difficult to obtain clarity on which one will prevail.  The conjunction with Algol looks like a second bottom after the bottom in March-April 2024.  From 20 July Mars is in Gemini where it is more bullish than in Taurus and on 4 August Mercury turns Rx, so the end of July is looking green.  For now I am refraining from forecasting the closing candle of July.

From 4 August – 27 August 2024 Mercury goes retrograde again.  The recovery that began at the end of July is going to be flattened for the 3 weeks in August.  Mercury Rx tends to keep a low ceiling on prices.  That does not necessarily mean bearish.  It can still be moving upwards.   28 August 2024 this year is the 10-year anniversary of the passing of Bitcoin’s creator, Hal Finney and Bitcoin in the past has celebrated anniversaries of Hal Finney’s life so I do expect some pumping fireworks on 28 August. 23 August is red, it is an esoteric event which I have discussed only in my private telegram group, as it is way too woo woo to face the public.  If 23 August does turn out to be red, I will write a separate blog about that.  It is quite otherworldly.  For monthly closure I expect a green candle as the Chinese astrology supports that.  The elements of wood year and water month are friends and therefore should be working co-operatively and profitably.

On 28 August Mercury goes direct and only 6 days later on 3 September Mars enters Cancer where he hates to be. However this year  Mars in Cancer will be trining Saturn which is a bullish factor which will negotiate with the bear mood of Mars in Cancer.  The month of the Rooster has a water element which nourishes the wood of this year’s element.  In Western numerology it is number 8 which has 74% history of closing on a green candle.  On balance, I expect a green candle closure of September 2024.

Mars will stay in Cancer for the whole of October 2024.  In Western numerology October is month number 9 with a history of closing on green candles 71% of the time.  In Chinese astrology October is the month of the Wood Dog where dog is an Earth element.  That together with this year’s Wood-Earth combination, makes it double Wood – double Earth.  Very inauspicious for the world, earthquakes and other disasters are highly likely.  How these will affect Bitcoin The month of the Dog was red in the previous year of the Dragon.  We have equal weights of green and red confluences. It will be easier to know what to expect after we see the outcome of the war in July 2024.  For now I am refraining from forecasting the closing candle of October 2024.

From 3 November 2024 Mars goes in Leo and from 25 November 2024 Mercury goes retrograde again.  There are two red days in November 29 and 30 which belong to the woo woo esoteric confluence.  25 November will create a bear reversal however I expect that Mars in Leo will produce some serious pumps in November and the last week of November will not be enough to bring the month to a red candle closure. I expect a green candle closure for November 2024.

From 8 December 2024 Mars turns retrograde in Leo and Mercury is retrograde until 15 December which strongly suggests that the week between 8-15 December will be a red week.  Mars will be retrograde for the rest of December and Mercury will be taking another week to pick up speed, so it looks like the month will be red.  In Western numerology December is month number 2 which is the weakest number on back-testing.  58% of the time it has closed on red candles.  That is not a significant percentage but it is the highest percentage of closing on red among all the numbers from 1-9, except number 3 which closes on red 58% of the time as well.  December is a Rat and Bitcoin is a Rat in Chinese astrology.  December is a Fire Rat, where Rat by default has a Water nature.  Fire and Water are antagonistic to each other, however they may bring facilitation to the Wood Dragon (Earth) year.  As I am writing this forecast in January 2024 it is very difficult to visualise how these elements will interact with the yearly elements.  For now I forecast a red candle for December 2024.

To summarise:  February – green, March – red, April – red, May – green, June – red, July unknown , August – green, September – green, October unknown, November – green, December – red.  That is 4-5 red months and 6-7 green months in 2024.

Given several bear bi-monthly trends in 2024, It is very difficult to decide where to enter the most profitable long, from which the price never comes back.  Most traders in my group think the March dump will be the deepest and that is congruent with this year being the year before the peak historical behaviour.  If that is true, this year’s bull reversal will be a tense climb upward, challenged by many red candles or suppressed green candles in the periods mentioned above.  We will know when we see the price during the first crash in March – April 2024.. Anything >$24,476, I do not trust to be the bottom.

To conclude: we need to use several system’s confluences to narrow down the date of the deepest crash in 2024. There will be at least one. The year of the Wood Dragon is going to be very dramatic because Wood and Earth are not compatible and they are participating in this combination. I do not want to sound bearish because I am a firm believer in the 4-year cycle of Bitcoin’s tops, there is a lot of evidence for that, and I do expect that this year Bitcoin will make the bull reversal that will rally it to the new ATH in 2025.  In every cycle so far, the rally always begins in the year before the peak.  This year may give us the bull reversal or we may have to wait until December – February dumps to take place before the visible bull reversal begins.  Mars finally goes direct on 24 February 2025 which will make the bull reversal visible.  However as Mars will be Leo when retrograde from 7 December – 24 February 2025, it is very feasible that the bull reversal will happen before 24 February 2025.  I will be examining that period deeper in another article.  For now we have that as the last bear period before the rally to the new ATH in 2025.

Depends how keen you are to get into a long, you can wait until the last bear period December 2024- February 2025 to open your long positions.  I will keep some cash to enter on that dip, however I will be opening longs in the crashes in March-April 2024 and in the crash in July 2024 if the July war crashes the markets,

I am keen to open long positions in 2024 because several bullish confluences converge for 2025.  It is a fire element year in Chinese astrology.  Fire brings optimism in the world and the economy.  Prices will be higher in 2025 across all markets.  2025 is a year number 4 in the bull cycle of Bitcoin, i.e. the year with the highest prices..  This is how the cycle has been working so far: 2013 – 2017 – 2021 – 2025 – quite a strong historical pattern of peaks.  Also in 2025 Bitcoin will be 16 years old, which is 2 x 8 years.  These are 2 x Jupiter cycles of 8 years.  Treat Bitcoin as a person and it will be much easier to see through the cycles.  Check how the 8-year Jupiter cycle has been performing in your individual life.  In my life it has been working like a clock.  At age 16 I received a property as a gift from my parents.  Then ages 24, 32, 40, have been very rewarding for me with very little efforts.  It is the little efforts and the flavour of ease that reveal the Jupiterian influence in the cycle.  From there on whether we gain a property or bigger or smaller rewards it is up to many other factors.  Bitcoin’s history so far confirms that the Jupiterian 8-year cycle is in operation.

I will open a long position in the crash of March – April 2024 if Bitcoin touches $24,476 despite knowing that there will be more bearish trends after that, because Bitcoin is in a 4-year cycle of support in 2024.  Bitcoin is a Rat and it is in the trio of support between Rat – Dragon – Monkey.  2024 is the year of the Dragon, therefore despite all the bearish fearful vibe of 2024, Bitcoin will still rise higher than 2023 because Rat and Dragon are supportive to each other.

For spot long positions that is a pretty decent strategy.  For long future positions the question still remains when is the deepest dump so we can enter that long to take us all the way to the next year’s ATH. For that long we may have to wait until December-2024  February 2025 period, as the final dip will happen then.  Will that be the lowest dip, I do not think so. I think the crashes in March – April 2024 and if the July war produces a crash in July 2024, are more likely to give us those lowest bottoms. Entering a long in the last bearish period December 2024 – February 2025 will more likely be from a higher price but at least it will be more comfortable and less challenged by subsequent dumps, because after 24 February 2025 Bitcoin will be picking up speed upwards with a direct Mars in Leo and will not be revisiting the dip prices of 2024 until the crashes in 2026.

Let me know in the comments below, what you think, fellow traders, and please make your own decisions. I’m only sharing my thoughts here with the little evidence I have at hand.