Bitcoin March 2025 Crash Assessment

The most important event in March 2025 is the Total Lunar Eclipse on 14 March 2025. You have seen my updates on X. Lots of airplane crashes in history on Day 1 after the Total Lunar Eclipse: 15 March in 2025. And lots of other disasters such as gas explosions, train crashes, lots of deaths. With all of that backtesting, avoid travelling or going to risky places on 14 March and the week after. Avoid tunnels or high buildings. 23 degree of Virgo is Aquarian degree meaning social rebellion, high buildings, high sky. Our Total Lunar Eclipse is right at the end of the 23 degree so it may have the nature of 24 degree = Piscean nature. Risky either way. Protect yourselves and loved ones.

On the Bitcoin market, lots of FUD has been posted by my colleagues about a crash in March and that derailed my research. I had to dig deeper to check the historical probabilities of a crash happening and here are the backtesting results below.

23-24 degrees Virgo Lunar Eclipse on 14 March 2025 has taken place before in 1960, 1979, 1998 (22 Vir), 2006 (24 Vir), all in March.

DJIA March 1960 closed a bit lower.

GSPC March 1960 closed a bit lower.

DJIA March 1979 closed a lot higher.

S&P 500 March 1979 closed a lot higher.

DJIA March 1998 closed higher.

NASDAQ March 1998 closed higher.

DJIA March 2006 closed higher.

NASDAQ March 2006 closed higher.

There is no historical evidence of a crash on 23-24 degrees of Virgo Lunar Eclipse in March. Even in the worst scenario March 1960 closed a bit lower.

In previous updates I highlighted the 5 year anniversary from Covid black swan, so we are vulnerable to a black swan in 2025 . We are at a risk of a crash not from the Eclipse but from the Covid anniversary. Keep in mind that there was no crash in March 2015. But there was a down trend in the 2nd half of March. That is slightly different than a crash.

March 2015 was a bell shaped month and closed on red with 5% loss.

March 2020 crashed

2025 is in the same 5 year bear cycle 2015 – 2020 – 2025 and that is why I have forecasted a red closure of March 2025. It has closed on red in both 2015 & 2020. I reserve the right to change my forecast if Bitcoin fulfils certain conditions as discussed below.

As you can see above, in the DJIA historical charts from 1960 – 2006: 8, 6, 5, 9 March were the monthly bottoms. Guess why? Because these are the seasonal bottoms that are in the blue poster called 24 Solar terms given to you in my previous updates.

My white and orange fractals are seasonal fractals. You are well familiar with them as I have been posting since December 2024. Orange fractal highlights 2 March as the monthly and Yearly bottom and White fractal highlights 5 March as the monthly and Yearly bottom. (as 13 January bottom got invalidated, the next deep low is the seasonal low of March and that’s it).

However this heavy dump yesterday on 26 February is not a seasonal bottom. And it is reminding us of 2015. Exactly 26 February was the local bottom in 2015. But that is a problem because as the seasonal bottom wasn’t made in 2015, further dumping followed all the way till April when a LL was made. We don’t want that in 2025 and I can assure you that April is bullish so I really don’t expect a LL in April, but I do expect either a LL double bottom in the last week of March or HL double bottom, as the 2015 chart is showing. Those of you who are new subscribers – you can read in previous updates why I’m comparing 2025 with 2020 and 2015.

The seasonal bottoms are sacred and healthy. They are like a healthy hair cut, healthy pruning of the trees to bring more fruit. Pruning is essential for abundance in nature.

However bottoms outside the seasonal bottoms = volatility and further dumping.

You can see above how healthy the seasonal bottoms are: DJIA has done the seasonal bottoms on 8, 6, 5, 9 March 1960-2006 and that was followed by effortless rally because the healthy pruning is done. Even in 1960 that closed on a red, it is just a bit lower. For a vulnerable month that contains a Total Lunar Eclipse, it is not a bad performance.

And you see above in 2015 and 2020, when the seasonal bottom is NOT done and dusted, on the Bitcoin market, that led to further dumping after that. And unfortunately those 2 years are exactly in our cycle.

So, we really want a bottom on the seasonal dates starting from 28 February (the dark green fractal) to 1, 2, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9 March at the latest. If 26 February remains the bottom for the first 10 days of March, we expect a possible LL double bottom in the end of March as it had happened in 2015.

A healthy seasonal bottom 2-5-9 March at the latest will set the scene for a HL double bottom in the 2nd half of March as shown by my Orange and White fractals below. That double bottom is much higher than the double bottom of March 2015, when they skipped the seasonal bottom and 26 February acted as the bottom. If we do that again in 2025, a harder dumping is expected in 2nd half of March and the bell shape is expected to be deeper more like March 2015.

We just have to wait and see whether we are going to make the seasonal bottom in the first week of March.

Is it possible to make both the seasonal bottom and then still have a deep bell shaped month and a deep double bottom in the last week of March?

History shows no. And my seasonal fractals show no. The White & Orange fractals are showing end of March 2025 is a much higher low. Quite different to the LL of March 2015. Still a bell shape but a lot more optimistic than 2015. March 2015 was followed by a LL in April 2015. I really don’t expect that in April 2025. But that is if we do the seasonal bottom in the first week of March. If we leave 26 February to be the bottom, we are likely to get the bell shape of March 2015.

My research described in the Bitcoin March 2025 Analysis – published on this website, shows high probabilities of a down trend in the 2nd half of March and a double bottom in last week of March.

That is valid for either type of a bell shape: the optimistic type with a HL as on the fractal or the pessimistic one as in March 2015 with a LL at the end of March.

Which type we will get depends on what bottom we get these days.

We will know from the candles on 2 and 5 March if we made a proper bottom.